Why Brock Purdy’s Future with the San Francisco 49ers is Murky

Things haven't gone according to plan for the San Francisco 49ers this season. Since losing the Super Bowl in February, the team was poised again to make another run at a championship. However, pitfalls were always present. Their roster is on the older side, and the fear was coming so close to winning it all year-after-year (meaning the team was playing deep into the playoffs in each of the last several seasons) would result in fatigue.

Both of those "worst case scenario" items came true for the 49ers. It's been a season from hell, with multiple issues plaguing their season. Here is a brief rundown of all that's went wrong this season:

• Offensive lineman Trent Williams held out of training camp seeking a contract extension.
• Williams and his wife's son died during childbirth in November.
• Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk held out of training camp seeking a contract extension.
• Aiyuk tore his ACL in Week 7, ending his season.
• Linebacker De'Vondre Campbell removed himself from the Week 15 game against the Los Angeles Rams, effectively quitting on his team.
• Exceptional running back Christian McCaffrey was beleaguered by injuries this season, not seeing the field until Week 10. McCaffrey played four games before being shut down for the remainder of the season.
• The 49ers also experienced a rash of injuries to other starters like Dre Greenlaw and Javon Hargrave.

Add in a tough division that boasts the Rams, Seattle Seahawks, and the Arizona Cardinals, and you have a team that has stumblebummed its way to a disappointing 6-10 record, and are a dead team walking into the final game of the year against the Cardinals on Sunday.

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And then there's the Brock Purdy "problem," if you want to call it that. Purdy lit the NFL on fire the last two seasons, coming in for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo in 2022 and leading the Niners to the NFC Championship Game, followed by a 2023 season where he led them to a Super Bowl.

The problem has been this year, where Purdy has been up-and-down, and at times, completely ineffective as the team's starting quarterback. Despite throwing for over 3,800 yards, Purdy's statistics (20 touchdowns, 12 interceptions) are pedestrian by his own standards. Last season, he tossed 31 touchdowns to 11 interceptions.

Oh, and now he has a mysterious right elbow injury that will sideline him for the Niners upcoming game against the Cardinals.

Through his first three seasons with the 49ers, Purdy has been the biggest bargain in the NFL. The last pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, Purdy has a four-year $3.7 million contract. Next year, he enters the final season of his rookie deal, and is contract eligible. The big questions for the 49ers: do you pay Brock Purdy top-of-the-market money? Presently, the highest paid quarterback in the NFL is the Dallas Cowboys' Dak Prescott at $60 million/year. Cincinnati Bengals' Joe Burrow is second at $55 million/year.

Are you comfortable paying Purdy that kind of money? I wouldn't be.

Purdy has shown his ability to command a juggernaut offense by getting the ball to open receivers, limiting turnovers, and moving the chains when required. This season, however, has proven that without a star running back in McCaffrey, his reliable receiver Aiyuk, and a sometimes shaky offensive line, Purdy looks painfully average.

The Niners also have one of the most expensive rosters in the league. They (deservedly) dolled out big contracts to the likes of Williams, McCaffrey, Aiyuk, wide receiver Deebo Samuel, Iowa boy George Kittle, and others. Paying Purdy top-of-the-market money would almost surely result in the team having no choice but to shed some of its top-of-the-line talent.

However, not paying Purdy, letting him play out the last year of his contract, makes him liable to hit free agency after next season. Doing that also inevitably results in the price of his salary going up. What could be, say, $62 million/year this offseason perhaps becomes closer to $70 million/year, depending on the deal the next contract-eligible quarterback gets.

As much as I love the former Iowa State product's story, I would have a very difficult time rationalizing such a lofty salary for Brock Purdy. I don't see the 49ers letting him walk out the door for nothing, or even trading him to another team, but this is a situation that will have ramifications for the 49ers for years to come, regardless of what happens.